Balancing Risk and Profitability of Securities Companies – A Case Study in Vietnam
Abstract
The goal of creating, forming, and developing businesses in general and securities
companies in particular, whose ultimate goal is profit, high and stable profitability is
the goal of any company. However, due to their specific business lines, securities
companies are affected by risks such as market risk (which is the value
corresponding to the level of loss that may occur when the market price of assets
currently owned and expected to be owned under the underwriting commitment
fluctuates in an adverse direction); Payment risk (is the value corresponding to the
level of loss that may occur when the counterparty is unable to make payment on
time or deliver assets on time as committed; operational risk (is the value
corresponding to the level of losses that may occur due to technical errors, system
and business process errors, human errors in the operation process, due to lack of
business capital arising from expenses and losses from investment activities, due
to other objective reasons). The problem is how the securities company can
balance the safety goal, limit the possible risks and at the same time still increase
the ability of the enterprise profitability.
In practice, there are many methods to measure risk, but one of the most widely
accepted methods of predicting risk and bankruptcy today is Z-score of the US
economist's - Edward I. Altman – a lecturer of New York University faculty member
set. In the US, about 95% of bankruptcies are forecast from the Z-score one year
before the closing date, but this rate drops to just 74% for 2-year forecasts. From
the initial Z-index forecast, Professor Edward I. Altman has developed it into Z' and
Z'' to be applicable to each type and industry of the business. The Z'' coefficient is
similar to the S&P credit rating.